YEARS INDEPENDENCE by JOHN BLAIR Internally, they can preach socialism while promoting capitalism. For instance, what could be more contradictory than Kaunda's statement at a recent meeting that "There is no room left in Zambia for capitalism. It must be fought and replaced with the national philosophy of humanism." Apart from the manifest absurdity of attempting to substitute a totally abstract philosophical theory for a very concrete economic system, such a statement sounds somewhat strange coming from a leadership which devotes its energies to promoting private enterprise in farming, marketing, and property. Indeed, spokesmen for the government have recently gone out of their way to praise examples of businessmen who have been successful, attributing their achievements, needless to say, to a proper application of "humanism"! Fortunately, there are indications that Kaunda's verbal gyrations are beginning to be less and less convincing to wide sectors of the population. Most of the credit for this must go to the effects of the international crisis of the world imperialist economy. For a period Zambia's economy had been relatively immune to this crisis compared to that of much of the Third World. Fundamentally, the economy depends on the constantly volatile price of copper, the commodity which accounts for 98 percent of Zambia's exports by value. In April of 1974 the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange, which controls world prices, stood at 1400 Kwacha per ton (1 Kwacha equals approximately US$1.50). As a result of the decline in demand due to the recession of the imperialist economies, copper now stands at only just over K900 per ton, and further falls are predicted. In at attempt to rectify this position by creating a world scarcity of copper, CIPEC, the international consortium of the world's four largest producers outside the United States and the Soviet Union - Zaire, Zambia, Chile, and Peru — has agreed on a reduction of 70, 000 tons each in the amount to be ex-
ported in 1975. But even this measure is unlikely to arrest the downward price spiral, particularly since Japan has recently been unloading large quantities onto the market. The heavy reliance of Zambia's economy on the world price of copper is constantly exacerbated by its own increasing dependence on food imports. Imports of food stood at Kl4 million annually at the time of independence and now stand at K37 annually. The root cause of this problem is the total failure in the past ten years to promote efficient agricultural development in the rural areas, where 70 percent of the population lives. Any solution is currently being rendered even more difficult by the spectacular escalation of fertilizer prices which have quadrupled in the past few years. This is a chronic problem for an area whose relatively poor soil over most of the country demands massive chemical inputs in order to produce reasonable surpluses. But in a country where, at the time of independence, half of the marketed produce was grown by 1, 000 European farmers along the "line-of-rail" between Livingstone and the Copperbelt, the fundamental failure has been the failure to diversify and develop the economy of the rural areas through massive in¡ections of capital and the mobilization of the peasant producers into cooperative production. Rural development has been a constant slogan for the UNIP for the last ten years. But in practice the priorities of the government have constantly negated it. Thus while average urban incomes went from K250 in 1964 to K600 in 1970, those in the rural areas, according to official figures, increased only from K25-40 to K30-50. It is this failure in the agricultural sector combined with the inflation of the world economy which is leading Kaunda's government into its most serious crisis to date. Startling confirmation of the problem came on November 19, 1974, with the announcement by the government of the withdrawal of an annual subsidy of K30 million on flour, soaps, stock feeds, fats, and detergents. The result was an increase in the price of a loaf of bread from 13 to 27 Ngwee (100 Ngwee=1 Kwacha). The price of a giant package of detergent rose from 89n to Kl.73, while cooking oil has gone up by 60 percent. For the average urban family the increase in the price of bread alone will mean finding another 7 or 8 Kwacha each month to keep up with present levels of consumption. To understand properly the problems involved it is only necessary to know that wages for the lowest-paid grade of workers in the local authority - who comprise nearly 10 percent of the working population - have recently been increased by 10 percent to K31.35 per month. The imposition of these penal price increases led to spontaneous displays of anger of a sort unprece-
KAUNDA dented in Zambia since independence. In Kitwe, the industrial center of the Copperbelt, a mob of housewives attacked bakery salesmen in Chamboli mine township. They were forced to return to their depot without unloading their supplies. In Mindolo township a salesman escaped unhurt when angry women surrounded his truck and threw stones. In Kwacha township another salesman was ordered not to unload bread as angry women advanced threatening to beat him up. In both Kitwe and Ndola organized groups of youth have been circulating urging people to refuse to buy bread. On Friday, November 22, the local political secretary, John Simbotwe, was greeted with chants of "Bread, bread" when he stood up to speak at a reception in Ndola to celebrate the anniversary of Mobutu's seizure of power in Zaire. In a political situation as retarded as that in Zambia such actions are unlikely to be sustained and undoubtedly do not represent anything but a brief and spontaneous eruption of protest. Nonetheless, they are a sign of the weakness of the UNIP leadership faced with this grave economic crisis. More articulated opposition to the price increases came from the University of Zambia Students' Union in Lusaka. Secretary General James Mupeta declared that the reasons given for the increases were "absurd, dubious, and full of ambiguities. " He suggested that "all progressive members of Parliament should fight and defeat the price increase move in order to save the poor people from starvation. " Clearly the students represent one section of the population capable of developing opposition. Already the previous week four students, members of the editorial board of a campus newsletter "Trunza, had been arrested on charges of publishing seditious
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ZAMBIA material and managing an unregistered publication. Their main offense appears to have been their criticism of "excessive" government expenditure on the independence celebrations and their consistent campaign against the importation of 50 to 70 Mercedes Benzes every year for the use of the officials. Not mentioned by the students but very relevant as support for their case were the agreements recently reached by the government with the international mining corporations who still maintain a 49 percent holding in Zambia's mines. These give concrete evidence - if any is needed - of the government's determination not to offend imperialist interests. Compensation has been paid of K33 million to Oppenheimer's Angio-American Corporation and K22 million to the American Metal Climax Company to recompense them for termination of their contracts to provide management consultant and sales services after the takeover of these functions by the majority shareholders (the Zambian government). These agreements were in any case due to expire in 1979. Thus these two companies have made a cool 55 million while being relieved of any expense from now on. Unfortunately, the government appears relatively successful in its attempts to isolate the students. Defending the use of UNIP spies on the campus of UNZA, Home Affairs Minister Aaron Milner said: "If there are such students at the university (informers), they should be commended for the job they are doing for the country.. . We must all together fight all those individuals who are engaged in acts of espionage, subversion, and sabotage. Undoubtedly, one of the things which has rankled the government most has been the refusal of the students at UNZA to allow a UNIP branch to be Formed on the campus. It will also certainly be disturbing to the government that one of the arrested students has just been elected unopposed as chairman of the Zambia National Union of Students. But the students remain weak primarily because of the abysmally low level of political ideas in Zambia which has so far meant that no Marxist tendency of any kind has emerged to give leadership and a structured ideology to the movement. While the student field undoubtedly offers hopeful prospects for oppositional developments, the same cannot be said at this moment for the key sector of the trade unions. Undoubtedly the UNIP leadership's strategy of integrating the trade union movement into the state apparatus has proceeded very successfully. This was evident at the quadrennial conference of the ZCTU (Zambia Congress of Trade Unions) held at Livingstone immediately after the announcement of the price increases. The conference never began to tackle the question of how to fight their effects on the living standard of the working class. 30
Instead, they passed a resolution which merely urged the government "to consider the hardships caused by unsystematic measures aimed at countering inflation" and asking that there be "consultations" with the ZCTU before any future price increases. The extent to which the government controls the trade unions was demonstrated by the way in which it was blandly announced that Labour and Social Services Minister Dingiswayo Banda would be present throughout the conference to ensure "fair play." Indeed, he gave the keynote speech, which consisted mainly of threats that if the unions were not better organized the government would withdraw their legal status. More direct interference in the trade unions is commonplace. In July, for instance, twelve candidates in the branch leadership elections for the Mufulira section of MUZ (Mineworkers Union of Zambia) were arrested and detained seven days before the election took place. Three days after they had all been defeated, they were released. Absolutely no public explanation was ever made for their arbitrary detention. But if the trade unions are clearly at this moment well under government control, this is a situation which cannot last indefinitely without posing intolerable strains. It was important that in his address to the ZCTU conference Banda stressed the failure of certain unions to maintain contact between the leadership and the rank-and-file members. Obviously, the government fears the consequences of allowing such divisions to develop as they threaten independent action by the working class. Weakening of the UNIP Without doubt the new price increases enhance the possibilities for action on the part of the working class. For most of the post-independence period the government has been able to maintain regular wage increases for substantial sections of the population. This was made possible by rapid "Zambianization" of posts previously held by Europeans, especially those in government administration, combined with the expansion of industrial and commercial sectors made possible basically by relatively high copper prices. This means that expectations in the key sections of the working population - in mining, manufacturing, and government - have been raised to levels which cannot possibly be fulfilled in the coming period. The urban population is also deeply conscious of the disparity between their own wages and those of high administrative and government officials,
whose annual earnings often top K10,000 to K12, 000. Nor has their cynicism been dispelled by Kaunda's "Leadership Code. " This is a weak imitation of Nyerere's attempts to curb the tendency for selfenrichment by top officials who utilize their control of the state machinery to acquire businesses, property, etc. The fact that implementation of the code has been postponed twice to enable "leaders" to make proper returns has hardly convinced the masses of its eventual efficacyThe immediate likelihood is for increased expressions of discontent among the working class taking forms which are currently quite unpredictable but which will be a reflection of disillusionment with the UNIP regime. Despite the one-party state and its almost total monopoly on the media, this will be made easier by the fact that the party itself as a mass organization is now a pale shadow of what it was ten years ago. In the period prior to independence the party won the support of broad masses of the urban and rural population for its uncompromising stand against the racist Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland and for its position in favor of self-rule. At that stage it could accurately be described as a grouping with a firm mass base. Now, however, there are nothing but complaints from the leadership about the need for more intensified membership drives and other devices to revive its sagging fortunes. It is well known that in many rural areas the UNIP consists only of officials. Hence the plans which have been suggested for making all branch and constituency chairmen fulltime. Hence also the need which is increasingly felt to make attacks on ex-members of the UPP (United Progressive party) who are alleged to be making attempts to sow dissension and troubles within the UNIP. This grouping, led by former vice-president Simon Kapwepwe, was abolished in sri lanka: