GIVES FIGURES
There is. an old saying that figures don't lie but liars can give figures, The Central Intelligence Agency. appears to have gone out of its way to prove the aptness of the saw.
According to the New York Times [January 9] the CIA cited an "exhaustive analysis" which it had made, proving that "the Soviet Union's economic growth in the last two. years has been less than 2.5% annually, well under the rate of the United States,"
The CIA, of course, is in the spy business, and while it has many triumphs to boast, such as toppling the legally elected government of Guatemala, it does not yet seem to have recruited the world's outstand-— ing economists, The report should be taken with a side dish of salt.
It is true that the rate of growth of the economy in the United States has averaged 5% during the past three years, This is due to the fact that. 1960, being a recession year, had no growth at all, Once the ‘figures are taken for four years instead of the selected three, the average declines to less than 4%. . And since the previous years were marked by near stagnation, three successive years of stimulated growth brought the average ratefor the past fifteen years barely over 35%,
The annual rate of growth of the Soviet economy, in contrast, has been oscillating between 7% and 10% (not 6% and 10% as the CIA report incorrectly states). _ . ,
Official Soviet statistics do not give anything equivalent to American “national income" or “gross national product" calculations, if only because they do not include services. American statisticians -therefore have to make a series of guesses to calculate what the Soviet equivalent of the U.S.- "gross national product" might be, The calculation of the "value" of services in the Soviet economy, as well as the calculation of the relative weight of Soviet agriculture in the Soviet national income (calculated on Western patterns) is extremely difficult,
_ It is from these difficulties that much of the uncertain if not highly dubious character of the CIA spy=service calculations stems,
‘The figures provided by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Which are generally considered very accurate, inditate only a slight slowdown of industrial growth in. the Soviet Union during the past three years ~~ from 10% in 1961 to 9% in 1962 and 8% in 1963.
It is true that agriculture not only showed no growth during this period, in 1963 the results dropped below the 1961 and 1962 figures, However, official Soviet sources estimate that the over-all net output of agriculture contributes only 16% to the Soviet national income (calculated by Soviet standards),. -
Under these conditions, an 8% increase in industry and transport, © together with 5% decrease in agriculture, give an annual average rate of growth of 6%.
If allowance is made for the services not included in the Soviet statistical category "industry and transport," it is doubtful that this ‘ percentage falls below 6% -- and it is quite ridiculous to assume that it would drop as low as 2,5%, the assertions of Washington's spy departe ment to the contrary.
DON'T FORGET THIS
. Out of 41 Polaris submarines authorized or under construction, the United States has 15 now prowling the seas, Each captain of the pig boats controls 16 nuclear rockets, giving him a destructive power greater than all the bombs exploded in World Wer II. .- .
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"MINGGUAN PEKERDJA" -~ AN IND ONES TAN MARXIST MAGAZINE
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